AHV financial outlook under the law in force (FSIO, 25 May 2022) and pay-as-you-go results 2011–2021
bsv-ahv-finances-2022
- Publisher
- Federal Social Insurance Office (BSV / OFAS / UFAS)
- Link
- https://swissvotes.ch/attachments/24fa147faf505ef8af17e4bd783e4e84b0bf17bfea57311d8f8b2fa8d1172f24
- Access method
manual- Endpoint
- https://swissvotes.ch/attachments/24fa147faf505ef8af17e4bd783e4e84b0bf17bfea57311d8f8b2fa8d1172f24
- Table id
Finanzperspektiven der AHV gemäss geltender Ordnung, column Umlageergebnis- Licence
- Publication of the federal administration (BSV); no licence is stated in the documents, confirmation of the terms of reuse is pending. Figures are quoted with the source named.
- Coverage
- Geography national · from 2011 · to 2032 · published 2022-05-25 (projection) and 2022-06-27 (background document)
- Gaps
- Observed results after 2021 are not in these documents; the projection with AHV 21 (page 2 of the tables) is not kept (STORY-08 shows only the outcome that did not happen).
- Used on
- STORY-08
- Known limits
- A projection, not an outcome: it shows what the BSV expected in May 2022 if the law then in force had been kept, that is, if AHV 21 had been rejected (the voting booklet: the two AHV 21 objects of 25 September 2022 were linked, and the rejection of either would have made the whole reform fail). Projected values are at 2022 prices, observed values at the prices of each year. On 6 August 2024 the BSV announced that its AHV financial outlooks overstated long-term expenditure because of two faulty formulas in its calculation program (press release "Fehlerhafte Formeln im Berechnungsprogramm: BSV korrigiert AHV-Finanzperspektiven"); the press release does not say which earlier editions were affected. The values here are kept as published in 2022.
- Verification
- verification date: 2026-11-01 · method: Downloaded both PDFs from swissvotes.ch (the vote 660 campaign material) and extracted their text. Every current_law value 2023–2032 of the tables of 25.05.2022 equals "Tabelle 4: Umlageergebnisse der AHV 2023 bis 2032 (ohne AHV 21)" of the background document of 27.06.2022; each table value also equals total income minus total expenditure of its row (±1 from rounding). The 2021 observed value (880) is in both documents. The official voting booklet of 25.09.2022 cites the background document as its source for the financing gap of 18.5 billion francs. · checkedValue: Umlageergebnis without AHV 21: 2025 −172, 2030 −3 000, 2032 −4 726 million francs; 2021 observed 880 · checkedAgainst: https://swissvotes.ch/attachments/5d2a167c40f4b0abbe310ff7ff30df88cd1707a5651636f9edd12fceec16d996
- Processed file
- data/processed/bsv-ahv-finances-2022.csv
How current is this data?
- Freshness
- Up to date
According to its update rhythm, no newer edition is expected yet.
- Period covered
- 2011–2032
- Last change of the data
- Last check of the source
- No check recorded yet
- Update rhythm
- Fixed publication: it does not change
Ledger note (in English): Fixed historical publication; it does not change.
The state is computed each time the site is built; this page shows it as of . Results of the accuracy checks
Transformations
- Typed by hand from the PDF tables (Votara editors, 2026-11-01): series current_law = column "Umlageergebnis" of "Finanzperspektiven der AHV gemäss geltender Ordnung", 2022–2032, million francs at 2022 prices (BSV tables of 25.05.2022, page 1, status "definitive Abrechnung 2021", economic assumptions of 24.3.2022, BFS population scenario A-00-2020).
- series observed = "Tabelle 3: Umlageergebnisse der AHV 2011 bis 2021, in Millionen Franken" of the BSV background document "Die Finanzen der AHV ohne und mit AHV 21" (27.6.2022, page 2), at the prices of each year.
- Umlageergebnis = income minus expenditure of the insurance, without the return on the AHV fund's investments.