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Outlook

The next federal votes: how strong the parties recommending yes or no are, how parliament voted, how Votara estimates the chance of acceptance – and what would change according to the official texts.

Vote of 29 November 2026

  1. Mandatory referendum

    VAT increase in favour of the old-age insurance

    Political balance

    Share of the vote of the parties at the 2023 National Council election, by their voting recommendation

    • Recommend yes
      • SP 18.3%
      • Centre 14.1%
      • Greens 9.8%
      • GLP 7.6%
      • EVP 2.0%
    • Recommend no
      • SVP 27.9%
      • FDP 14.3%
      • EDU 1.2%
    • No recommendation recorded yet
      • Lega 0.6%
      • MCG 0.5%
    • Other lists (not recorded by Swissvotes)

    ≈ Colour approximate, not yet checked against the party's own material: GLP and MCG.

    Recommendations and final votes

    Federal Council
    Yes
    Parliament
    Yes
    National Council
    108 yes, 85 no (56% yes)
    Council of States
    28 yes, 13 no (68% yes)

    Chance of acceptance

    58% estimated chance that the object is accepted

    Votara estimate, not an official forecast

    Not known yet: the recommendations of some parties.

    Recorded in the public log on 1 November 2026

    What would change if accepted

    Draft — under editorial review

    Votara’s translation of the official texts, still to be reviewed.

    • VAT would be raised for an unlimited period, from the start of 2028 at the earliest: the standard rate by 0.4 percentage points from 8.1% to 8.5%, the special rate for accommodation from 3.8% to 4%.

      [1] p. 4, 15, 18, 21

    • The reduced rate of 2.6% would not be raised, so there would be no increase in VAT on certain everyday goods such as food, medicines, newspapers, magazines and books.

      [1] p. 4, 15–16

    • The proceeds would go in full to the OASI compensation fund: an estimated CHF 1.4 billion a year from 2029. Together with the federal contribution, this would cover around half of the additional costs of the 13th OASI pension payment.

      [1] p. 4, 16, 24

    • According to the Federal Tax Administration, the extra cost would average an estimated CHF 180 a year per household (CHF 15 a month); the actual extra cost is likely to be somewhat higher.

      [1] p. 18

    Official sources
    1. [1] Popular vote of 29 November 2026 – Explanations of the Federal Council (voting booklet) ↗ Federal Chancellery (BK/ChF/CaF) for the Federal Councilpublished on 12 October 2026

    Checked against the sources on 1 November 2026

  2. Popular initiative

    Fireworks Initiative

    Political balance

    Share of the vote of the parties at the 2023 National Council election, by their voting recommendation

    • Recommend yes
      • SP 18.3%
      • Greens 9.8%
      • GLP 7.6%
      • EVP 2.0%
    • Recommend no
      • SVP 27.9%
      • FDP 14.3%
      • Centre 14.1%
      • EDU 1.2%
    • No recommendation recorded yet
      • Lega 0.6%
      • MCG 0.5%
    • Other lists (not recorded by Swissvotes)

    ≈ Colour approximate, not yet checked against the party's own material: GLP and MCG.

    Recommendations and final votes

    Federal Council
    No
    Parliament
    No
    National Council
    50 yes, 131 no (28% yes)
    Council of States
    3 yes, 40 no (7% yes)

    Chance of acceptance

    11% estimated chance that the object is accepted

    Votara estimate, not an official forecast

    Not known yet: the recommendations of some parties.

    Recorded in the public log on 1 November 2026

    What would change if accepted

    Draft — under editorial review

    Votara’s translation of the official texts, still to be reviewed.

    • The sale and use of fireworks that produce noise would in principle be banned throughout Switzerland. The ban would be written into the Federal Constitution.

      [1] p. 6, 28, 34

    • The initiative leaves open which fireworks would be banned; according to its authors, low-noise fireworks such as Bengal lights and volcanoes would still be permitted. Parliament and the Federal Council would have two years to regulate the details.

      [1] p. 6, 28, 35

    • The cantons could grant exemptions for events of supra-regional significance, such as the National Day on 1 August. However, even on those occasions, individuals should not be permitted to set off noisy fireworks.

      [1] p. 6, 28, 34

    Official sources
    1. [1] Popular vote of 29 November 2026 – Explanations of the Federal Council (voting booklet) ↗ Federal Chancellery (BK/ChF/CaF) for the Federal Councilpublished on 12 October 2026

    Checked against the sources on 1 November 2026

  3. Popular initiative

    Initiative on the taxation of married couples

    Political balance

    Share of the vote of the parties at the 2023 National Council election, by their voting recommendation

    • Recommend yes
      • SVP 27.9%
      • Centre 14.1%
      • EVP 2.0%
      • EDU 1.2%
    • Recommend no
      • SP 18.3%
      • FDP 14.3%
      • Greens 9.8%
      • GLP 7.6%
    • No recommendation recorded yet
      • Lega 0.6%
      • MCG 0.5%
    • Other lists (not recorded by Swissvotes)

    ≈ Colour approximate, not yet checked against the party's own material: GLP and MCG.

    Recommendations and final votes

    Federal Council
    No
    Parliament
    No
    National Council
    97 yes, 102 no (49% yes)
    Council of States
    20 yes, 24 no (45% yes)

    Chance of acceptance

    20% estimated chance that the object is accepted

    Votara estimate, not an official forecast

    Not known yet: the recommendations of some parties.

    Recorded in the public log on 1 November 2026

    What would change if accepted

    Draft — under editorial review

    Votara’s translation of the official texts, still to be reviewed.

    • The Constitution would state that a married couple’s incomes are aggregated for direct federal tax, and that married couples are not treated less favourably than other taxpayers.

      [1] p. 8, 38, 48

    • Parliament would have three years to pass a law. If none is in force by 1 January 2030, a married couple’s direct federal tax would be calculated both jointly and as for unmarried persons, and the couple would pay the lower amount.

      [1] p. 8, 38, 48–49

    • The financial effects would depend on how it is implemented. Based on current tax rates, direct federal tax would be reduced by an estimated CHF 680 million to CHF 3 billion a year in total, mainly for married couples.

      [1] p. 8, 40

    • Individual taxation, approved by the electorate on 8 March 2026, could not be introduced for direct federal tax. At cantonal level, it would apply from 2032 onwards unless the law is amended before then.

      [1] p. 8, 42

    Official sources
    1. [1] Popular vote of 29 November 2026 – Explanations of the Federal Council (voting booklet) ↗ Federal Chancellery (BK/ChF/CaF) for the Federal Councilpublished on 12 October 2026

    Checked against the sources on 1 November 2026

  4. Optional referendum

    Amendment to the War Materiel Act

    Political balance

    Share of the vote of the parties at the 2023 National Council election, by their voting recommendation

    • Recommend yes
      • SVP 27.9%
      • FDP 14.3%
      • Centre 14.1%
      • GLP 7.6%
      • EDU 1.2%
    • Recommend no
      • SP 18.3%
      • Greens 9.8%
      • EVP 2.0%
    • No recommendation recorded yet
      • Lega 0.6%
      • MCG 0.5%
    • Other lists (not recorded by Swissvotes)

    ≈ Colour approximate, not yet checked against the party's own material: GLP and MCG.

    Recommendations and final votes

    Federal Council
    Yes
    Parliament
    Yes
    National Council
    122 yes, 68 no (64% yes)
    Council of States
    31 yes, 11 no (74% yes)

    Chance of acceptance

    67% estimated chance that the object is accepted

    Votara estimate, not an official forecast

    Not known yet: the recommendations of some parties.

    Recorded in the public log on 1 November 2026

    What would change if accepted

    Draft — under editorial review

    Votara’s translation of the official texts, still to be reviewed.

    • War materiel could be supplied to a partner state involved in an armed conflict, provided this is compatible with Switzerland’s neutrality and its foreign and security policy interests. This concerns 36 partner states with similar export controls.

      [1] p. 10, 53

    • The Federal Council could depart from the authorisation criteria, for any country, if exceptional circumstances apply and this is necessary to safeguard Switzerland’s foreign or security policy interests.

      [1] p. 10, 54, 61

    • Countries buying Swiss war materiel would no longer be required in every case to give an assurance that they will only pass it on with Switzerland’s consent. Assurances for materiel already delivered would remain binding.

      [1] p. 10, 54

    • Authorisations would still have to be consistent with the law of neutrality, human rights and other international obligations. Supplies from federal stocks to belligerent states would remain excluded.

      [1] p. 10, 53

    Official sources
    1. [1] Popular vote of 29 November 2026 – Explanations of the Federal Council (voting booklet) ↗ Federal Chancellery (BK/ChF/CaF) for the Federal Councilpublished on 12 October 2026

    Checked against the sources on 1 November 2026

Show the data as a table
Vote of 29 November 2026: political balance, recommendations, final votes and estimate
ObjectTypeFederal CouncilParliamentNational Council, yes shareCouncil of States, yes shareRecommend yes (vote share)Recommend no (vote share)No recommendation or free vote (vote share)No recommendation recorded yet (vote share)Other lists (not recorded by Swissvotes) (vote share)Chance of acceptance (Votara estimate)
VAT increase in favour of the old-age insuranceMandatory referendumYesYes56%68%51.8%43.4%0.0%1.1%3.9%58%
Fireworks InitiativePopular initiativeNoNo28%7%37.7%57.5%0.0%1.1%3.9%11%
Initiative on the taxation of married couplesPopular initiativeNoNo49%45%45.2%50.0%0.0%1.1%3.9%20%
Amendment to the War Materiel ActOptional referendumYesYes64%74%65.1%30.1%0.0%1.1%3.9%67%

Vote of 28 February 2027

  1. Popular initiative

    Initiative to ban the import of foie gras

    Political balance

    Share of the vote of the parties at the 2023 National Council election, by their voting recommendation

    • No recommendation recorded yet
      • SVP 27.9%
      • SP 18.3%
      • FDP 14.3%
      • Centre 14.1%
      • Greens 9.8%
      • GLP 7.6%
      • EVP 2.0%
      • EDU 1.2%
      • Lega 0.6%
      • MCG 0.5%
    • Other lists (not recorded by Swissvotes)

    ≈ Colour approximate, not yet checked against the party's own material: GLP and MCG.

    Recommendations and final votes

    Federal Council
    No
    Parliament
    No
    National Council
    51 yes, 119 no (30% yes)
    Council of States
    11 yes, 30 no (27% yes)

    Chance of acceptance

    No reliable estimate

    No recommendation is recorded yet for parties with 96.3% of the vote. Votara shows an estimate once the recommendations of parties with at least half of the vote are known.

    What would change if accepted

    Draft — under editorial review

    Votara’s translation of the official texts, still to be reviewed.

    • Importing foie gras and foie gras products would be banned. The ban would be written into the Federal Constitution (Article 80).

      [1] Art. 80 para. 2ter of the Constitution, p. 1

    • The ban would also cover private individuals who import these products for their own use. According to the Federal Council, they could no longer be bought in Switzerland either.

      [2] summary p. 2, section 4.2 p. 10

    • According to the dispatch, “foie gras products” would include foods containing foie gras, as well as magret and confit. Similar products made without force-feeding could still be imported, as the initiative intends.

      [2] sections 3.2–3.3, p. 7–9

    • Parliament would have to adopt the implementing provisions no later than two years after acceptance. Otherwise the Federal Council would issue them in an interim ordinance.

      [1] Art. 197 no. 15 of the Constitution, p. 2

    Official sources
    1. [1] Federal Decree on the popular initiative “Yes to an import ban on foie gras” of 2 October 2026 (Federal Gazette 2026 2712) ↗ Federal Assembly; published in the Federal Gazette by the Federal Chancellerypublished on 13 October 2026
    2. [2] Federal Council dispatch on the popular initiative “Yes to an import ban on foie gras” of 20 November 2024 (Federal Gazette 2024 3077) ↗ Federal Council; published in the Federal Gazette by the Federal Chancellerypublished on 12 December 2024

    Checked against the sources on 1 November 2026

  2. Popular initiative

    Initiative «For Modern Citizenship Rights (Democracy Initiative)»

    Political balance

    Share of the vote of the parties at the 2023 National Council election, by their voting recommendation

    • No recommendation recorded yet
      • SVP 27.9%
      • SP 18.3%
      • FDP 14.3%
      • Centre 14.1%
      • Greens 9.8%
      • GLP 7.6%
      • EVP 2.0%
      • EDU 1.2%
      • Lega 0.6%
      • MCG 0.5%
    • Other lists (not recorded by Swissvotes)

    ≈ Colour approximate, not yet checked against the party's own material: GLP and MCG.

    Recommendations and final votes

    Federal Council
    No
    Parliament
    No
    National Council
    63 yes, 133 no (32% yes)
    Council of States
    10 yes, 33 no (23% yes)

    Chance of acceptance

    No reliable estimate

    No recommendation is recorded yet for parties with 96.3% of the vote. Votara shows an estimate once the recommendations of parties with at least half of the vote are known.

    What would change if accepted

    Draft — under editorial review

    Votara’s translation of the official texts, still to be reviewed.

    • Foreign nationals who have lived legally in Switzerland for five years, have not been sentenced to a long prison term, do not endanger Switzerland’s security and have basic knowledge of a national language would have a right to naturalisation.

      [1] Art. 38 para. 2 of the Constitution, p. 1

    • The residence period required for ordinary naturalisation would fall from ten to five years. A settlement permit would no longer be required.

      [2] summary p. 2

    • Criminal convictions, except long prison sentences, and receiving social assistance would no longer prevent naturalisation. No additional integration criteria could be required.

      [2] summary p. 2, section 3.3 p. 30

    • The Confederation would regulate ordinary naturalisation exhaustively. According to the Federal Council, the new rules would only apply with implementing legislation; cantonal and communal citizenship would still be required.

      [2] sections 3.2–3.3, p. 29, 34

    Official sources
    1. [1] Federal Decree on the popular initiative “For a modern citizenship law (Democracy Initiative)” of 2 October 2026 (Federal Gazette 2026 2714) ↗ Federal Assembly; published in the Federal Gazette by the Federal Chancellerypublished on 13 October 2026
    2. [2] Federal Council dispatch on the popular initiative “For a modern citizenship law (Democracy Initiative)” of 5 November 2025 (Federal Gazette 2025 3372) ↗ Federal Council; published in the Federal Gazette by the Federal Chancellerypublished on 26 November 2025

    Checked against the sources on 1 November 2026

  3. Optional referendum

    Free trade agreement with Malaysia

    Political balance

    Share of the vote of the parties at the 2023 National Council election, by their voting recommendation

    • No recommendation recorded yet
      • SVP 27.9%
      • SP 18.3%
      • FDP 14.3%
      • Centre 14.1%
      • Greens 9.8%
      • GLP 7.6%
      • EVP 2.0%
      • EDU 1.2%
      • Lega 0.6%
      • MCG 0.5%
    • Other lists (not recorded by Swissvotes)

    ≈ Colour approximate, not yet checked against the party's own material: GLP and MCG.

    Recommendations and final votes

    Federal Council
    Yes
    Parliament
    Yes
    National Council
    130 yes, 64 no (67% yes)
    Council of States
    36 yes, 3 no (92% yes)

    Chance of acceptance

    No reliable estimate

    No recommendation is recorded yet for parties with 96.3% of the vote. Votara shows an estimate once the recommendations of parties with at least half of the vote are known.

    What would change if accepted

    Draft — under editorial review

    Votara’s translation of the official texts, still to be reviewed.

    • The agreement of 23 June 2025 with Malaysia would be approved and the Federal Council could ratify it. It would enter into force on the first day of the third month after Malaysia and at least one EFTA state have ratified it.

      [1][2] Art. 1, p. 1; dispatch section 7.5, p. 67

    • Tariff relief would apply to 99.9% of current Swiss exports to Malaysia, partly with transition periods. Swiss cheese, chocolate and coffee would enter Malaysia duty-free.

      [2] summary p. 2, section 5.4 p. 23

    • Switzerland would admit non-sensitive Malaysian farm products, such as bananas and mangos, duty-free. Palm oil would get lower tariffs only within quotas, in 22-tonne tanks and under sustainability rules.

      [2] section 5.4, p. 24

    • The Confederation would lose part of its customs revenue on farm products from Malaysia. In 2024 about CHF 4.4 million was paid on them; the reduction would have been at most CHF 2 million that year.

      [2] section 6.1.1, p. 63–64

    Official sources
    1. [1] Federal Decree of 19 June 2026 approving the Economic Partnership Agreement between the EFTA States and Malaysia (Federal Gazette 2026 1777) ↗ Federal Assembly; published in the Federal Gazette by the Federal Chancellerypublished on 30 June 2026
    2. [2] Federal Council dispatch on the approval of the Economic Partnership Agreement between the EFTA States and Malaysia of 28 January 2026 (Federal Gazette 2026 405) ↗ Federal Council; published in the Federal Gazette by the Federal Chancellerypublished on 26 February 2026

    Checked against the sources on 1 November 2026

  4. Optional referendum

    Nuclear Energy Act (lifting of the ban on the construction of new nuclear power plants)

    Political balance

    Share of the vote of the parties at the 2023 National Council election, by their voting recommendation

    • No recommendation recorded yet
      • SVP 27.9%
      • SP 18.3%
      • FDP 14.3%
      • Centre 14.1%
      • Greens 9.8%
      • GLP 7.6%
      • EVP 2.0%
      • EDU 1.2%
      • Lega 0.6%
      • MCG 0.5%
    • Other lists (not recorded by Swissvotes)

    ≈ Colour approximate, not yet checked against the party's own material: GLP and MCG.

    Recommendations and final votes

    Federal Council
    Yes
    Parliament
    Yes
    National Council
    106 yes, 88 no (55% yes)
    Council of States
    28 yes, 14 no (67% yes)

    Chance of acceptance

    No reliable estimate

    No recommendation is recorded yet for parties with 96.3% of the vote. Votara shows an estimate once the recommendations of parties with at least half of the vote are known.

    What would change if accepted

    Draft — under editorial review

    Votara’s translation of the official texts, still to be reviewed.

    • The ban on granting general licences for new nuclear power plants would be lifted. New plants would again be possible if a general licence is granted and the conditions for building and operating them are met.

      [1][2] Art. 12a (section I); dispatch section 6.3, p. 33

    • The ban on general licences for changes to existing nuclear power plants would also be lifted. This concerns major changes, such as fundamental renewals that significantly extend a plant’s operating life.

      [1][2] Art. 106 para. 1bis (section I); dispatch section 6.3, p. 33

    • For a nuclear power plant, the general licence would have an additional condition: the financing of construction and operation would have to be secured.

      [1] Art. 13 para. 1 let. h, p. 1

    • The amendment is the indirect counter-proposal to the popular initiative “Electricity for all at all times (Stop the blackout)”. Its committee withdrew it on condition; the withdrawal would take effect if the amendment enters into force.

      [1][3] section II para. 2, p. 2; Federal Gazette 2026 1830

    Official sources
    1. [1] Nuclear Energy Act, amendment of 19 June 2026 (Federal Gazette 2026 1772) ↗ Federal Assembly; published in the Federal Gazette by the Federal Chancellerypublished on 30 June 2026
    2. [2] Federal Council dispatch on the popular initiative “Electricity for all at all times (Stop the blackout)” and the indirect counter-proposal (amendment of the Nuclear Energy Act) of 13 August 2025 (Federal Gazette 2025 2563) ↗ Federal Council; published in the Federal Gazette by the Federal Chancellerypublished on 5 September 2025
    3. [3] Federal popular initiative “Electricity for all at all times (Stop the blackout)”: conditional withdrawal (Federal Gazette 2026 1830) ↗ Federal Chancellery (Federal Gazette)published on 3 July 2026

    Checked against the sources on 1 November 2026

  5. Optional referendum

    Priority of collective employment agreements over cantonal minimum wages

    Political balance

    Share of the vote of the parties at the 2023 National Council election, by their voting recommendation

    • No recommendation recorded yet
      • SVP 27.9%
      • SP 18.3%
      • FDP 14.3%
      • Centre 14.1%
      • Greens 9.8%
      • GLP 7.6%
      • EVP 2.0%
      • EDU 1.2%
      • Lega 0.6%
      • MCG 0.5%
    • Other lists (not recorded by Swissvotes)

    ≈ Colour approximate, not yet checked against the party's own material: GLP and MCG.

    Recommendations and final votes

    Federal Council
    Yes
    Parliament
    Yes
    National Council
    115 yes, 78 no (60% yes)
    Council of States
    23 yes, 16 no (59% yes)

    Chance of acceptance

    No reliable estimate

    No recommendation is recorded yet for parties with 96.3% of the vote. Votara shows an estimate once the recommendations of parties with at least half of the vote are known.

    What would change if accepted

    Draft — under editorial review

    Votara’s translation of the official texts, still to be reviewed.

    • Minimum wages in collective labour agreements (CLAs) could be declared generally binding even if they are lower than a cantonal minimum wage. According to the dispatch, this would also apply to minimum wages set in municipal law.

      [1][2] Art. 2 no. 4, p. 2; dispatch section 5, p. 14

    • The minimum-wage clauses of a generally binding CLA would take precedence over conflicting cantonal law. Today a CLA can only be declared generally binding if it does not conflict with mandatory cantonal law.

      [1][2] Art. 1 para. 4, p. 1; dispatch summary, p. 2

    • Where a cantonal minimum wage takes precedence when the law enters into force, it would keep applying at that amount until the CLA minimum wage exceeds it. Only then would the CLA prevail. The Federal Council sets the date of entry into force.

      [1] Art. 1 para. 5, p. 1; section II para. 2, p. 2

    • According to the dispatch (as of August 2024), five cantons have a minimum wage law (NE, JU, GE, TI, BS). Only in Neuchâtel and Geneva does the cantonal minimum wage take precedence over generally binding CLAs, if it is higher.

      [2] section 1.1, p. 3

    Official sources
    1. [1] Federal Act on the Declaration of General Applicability of Collective Labour Agreements (minimum wages below cantonal minimum wages), amendment of 19 June 2026 (Federal Gazette 2026 1770) ↗ Federal Assembly; published in the Federal Gazette by the Federal Chancellerypublished on 30 June 2026
    2. [2] Federal Council dispatch on the amendment of the Federal Act on the Declaration of General Applicability of Collective Labour Agreements of 13 December 2024 (Federal Gazette 2025 123) ↗ Federal Council; published in the Federal Gazette by the Federal Chancellerypublished on 17 January 2025

    Checked against the sources on 1 November 2026

Show the data as a table
Vote of 28 February 2027: political balance, recommendations, final votes and estimate
ObjectTypeFederal CouncilParliamentNational Council, yes shareCouncil of States, yes shareRecommend yes (vote share)Recommend no (vote share)No recommendation or free vote (vote share)No recommendation recorded yet (vote share)Other lists (not recorded by Swissvotes) (vote share)Chance of acceptance (Votara estimate)
Initiative to ban the import of foie grasPopular initiativeNoNo30%27%0.0%0.0%0.0%96.3%3.9%No reliable estimate
Initiative «For Modern Citizenship Rights (Democracy Initiative)»Popular initiativeNoNo32%23%0.0%0.0%0.0%96.3%3.9%No reliable estimate
Free trade agreement with MalaysiaOptional referendumYesYes67%92%0.0%0.0%0.0%96.3%3.9%No reliable estimate
Nuclear Energy Act (lifting of the ban on the construction of new nuclear power plants)Optional referendumYesYes55%67%0.0%0.0%0.0%96.3%3.9%No reliable estimate
Priority of collective employment agreements over cantonal minimum wagesOptional referendumYesYes60%59%0.0%0.0%0.0%96.3%3.9%No reliable estimate

How the estimate is made

Votara estimate, not an official forecast

The model odds-lite 0.1.0 estimates the chance of acceptance only from what is known before the vote: the type of vote, the recommendations of the Federal Council and Parliament, the final votes in both councils and the parties’ recommendations, weighted by their share of the vote at the last National Council election. It uses no polls.

Tested on 382 federal votes from 1981 to 2025: each year was estimated from earlier votes only.

Look back at past votes (backtest), not a prediction
MethodBrier score (lower is better)Accuracy
Votara model0.14878.5%
Follow the Federal Council0.16179.1%
Follow the parliament0.15979.1%
Share accepted by type0.16578.3%

Brier score: mean squared gap between the estimated chance and the result. Accuracy: share of yes or no results called correctly.

Source: Votara — Votara odds-lite model – probability that a federal vote is accepted (updated on )