Who steers?
Who sits in parliament today, which recommendations the parties have decided for the next votes, and how their strength has changed in National Council elections.
The Federal Assembly today
All members of the National Council and the Council of States by parliamentary group, as of the last data download.
Groups are ordered by their number of seats in each council, the largest on the left; members without a group come last. This order says nothing about political positions: the data used contains no seating plan.
National Council: seats by parliamentary group
200
members
- V Fraktion der Schweizerischen Volkspartei 67
- S Sozialdemokratische Fraktion 41
- M-E Die Mitte-Fraktion. Die Mitte. EVP. 31
- RL FDP-Liberale Fraktion 27
- G Grüne Fraktion 23
- GL Grünliberale Fraktion The Parliamentary Services publish no colour for this group. 11
National Council: 200 seats. Largest group: V (Fraktion der Schweizerischen Volkspartei), with 67 of the 200 seats. Seats per group, in the order of the chart from left to right: V 67, S 41, M-E 31, RL 27, G 23, GL 11.
Show the data as a table
| Member | Canton | Party | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nina Fehr Düsel | ZH | SVP | V |
| Benjamin Fischer | ZH | SVP | V |
| Martin Haab | ZH | SVP | V |
| Martin Hübscher | ZH | SVP | V |
| Thomas Matter | ZH | SVP | V |
| Gregor Rutz | ZH | SVP | V |
| Therese Schläpfer | ZH | SVP | V |
| Barbara Steinemann | ZH | SVP | V |
| Mauro Tuena | ZH | SVP | V |
| Bruno Walliser | ZH | SVP | V |
| Manfred Bühler | BE | SVP | V |
| Lars Guggisberg | BE | SVP | V |
| Erich Hess | BE | SVP | V |
| Thomas Knutti | BE | SVP | V |
| Hans Jörg Rüegsegger | BE | SVP | V |
| Katja Stettler-Riem | BE | SVP | V |
| Nadja Umbricht Pieren | BE | SVP | V |
| Ernst Wandfluh | BE | SVP | V |
| Franz Grüter | LU | SVP | V |
| Vroni Thalmann-Bieri | LU | SVP | V |
| Roman Bürgi | SZ | SVP | V |
| Marcel Dettling | SZ | SVP | V |
| Monika Rüegger | OW | SVP | V |
| Markus Schnyder | GL | SVP | V |
| Thomas Aeschi | ZG | SVP | V |
| Nicolas Kolly | FR | SVP | V |
| Pierre-André Page | FR | SVP | V |
| Christian Imark | SO | SVP | V |
| Rémy Wyssmann | SO | SVP | V |
| Thomas de Courten | BL | SVP | V |
| Sandra Sollberger | BL | SVP | V |
| Thomas Hurter | SH | SVP | V |
| Edgar Bischof | AR | SVP | V |
| Roland Rino Büchel | SG | SVP | V |
| Mike Egger | SG | SVP | V |
| Walter Gartmann | SG | SVP | V |
| Michael Götte | SG | SVP | V |
| Lukas Reimann | SG | SVP | V |
| Roman Hug | GR | SVP | V |
| Magdalena Martullo-Blocher | GR | SVP | V |
| Thomas Burgherr | AG | SVP | V |
| Benjamin Giezendanner | AG | SVP | V |
| Andreas Glarner | AG | SVP | V |
| Christian Glur | AG | SVP | V |
| Stefanie Heimgartner | AG | SVP | V |
| Alois Huber | AG | SVP | V |
| Christoph Riner | AG | SVP | V |
| Diana Gutjahr | TG | SVP | V |
| Pascal Schmid | TG | SVP | V |
| Manuel Strupler | TG | SVP | V |
| Paolo Pamini | TI | SVP | V |
| Roberta Soldati | TI | SVP | V |
| Michaël Buffat | VD | SVP | V |
| Sylvain Freymond | VD | SVP | V |
| Jacques Nicolet | VD | SVP | V |
| Yvan Pahud | VD | SVP | V |
| Jean-Luc Addor | VS | SVP | V |
| Michael Graber | VS | SVP | V |
| Didier Calame | NE | SVP | V |
| Céline Amaudruz | GE | SVP | V |
| Thomas Bläsi | GE | SVP | V |
| Thomas Stettler | JU | SVP | V |
| Erich Vontobel | ZH | EDU | V |
| Andreas Gafner | BE | EDU | V |
| Roger Golay | GE | MCG | V |
| Daniel Sormanni | GE | MCG | V |
| Lorenzo Quadri | TI | Lega | V |
| Islam Alijaj | ZH | SP | S |
| Jacqueline Badran | ZH | SP | S |
| Michèle Dünki-Bättig | ZH | SP | S |
| Min Li Marti | ZH | SP | S |
| Mattea Meyer | ZH | SP | S |
| Fabian Molina | ZH | SP | S |
| Anna Rosenwasser | ZH | SP | S |
| Priska Seiler Graf | ZH | SP | S |
| Tamara Funiciello | BE | SP | S |
| Nadine Masshardt | BE | SP | S |
| Ueli Schmezer | BE | SP | S |
| Andrea Zryd | BE | SP | S |
| Ursula Zybach | BE | SP | S |
| Hasan Candan | LU | SP | S |
| David Roth | LU | SP | S |
| Valérie Piller Carrard | FR | SP | S |
| Farah Rumy | SO | SP | S |
| Sarah Wyss | BS | SP | S |
| Miriam Locher | BL | SP | S |
| Samira Marti | BL | SP | S |
| Linda De Ventura | SH | SP | S |
| Arbër Bullakaj | SG | SP | S |
| Barbara Gysi | SG | SP | S |
| Jon Pult | GR | SP | S |
| Simona Brizzi | AG | SP | S |
| Gabriela Suter | AG | SP | S |
| Cédric Wermuth | AG | SP | S |
| Nina Schläfli | TG | SP | S |
| Bruno Storni | TI | SP | S |
| Samuel Bendahan | VD | SP | S |
| Brigitte Crottaz | VD | SP | S |
| Benoît Gaillard | VD | SP | S |
| Jessica Jaccoud | VD | SP | S |
| Jean Tschopp | VD | SP | S |
| Brenda Tuosto | VD | SP | S |
| Emmanuel Amoos | VS | SP | S |
| Martine Docourt | NE | SP | S |
| Christian Dandrès | GE | SP | S |
| Laurence Fehlmann Rielle | GE | SP | S |
| Estelle Revaz | GE | SP | S |
| Loïc Dobler | JU | SP | S |
| Nicole Barandun | ZH | Centre | M-E |
| Yvonne Bürgin | ZH | Centre | M-E |
| Philipp Kutter | ZH | Centre | M-E |
| Lorenz Hess | BE | Centre | M-E |
| Reto Nause | BE | Centre | M-E |
| Pius Kaufmann | LU | Centre | M-E |
| Leo Müller | LU | Centre | M-E |
| Priska Wismer-Felder | LU | Centre | M-E |
| Simon Stadler | UR | Centre | M-E |
| Dominik Blunschy | SZ | Centre | M-E |
| Regina Durrer-Knobel | NW | Centre | M-E |
| Gerhard Pfister | ZG | Centre | M-E |
| Christine Bulliard-Marbach | FR | Centre | M-E |
| Marie-France Roth Pasquier | FR | Centre | M-E |
| Stefan Müller-Altermatt | SO | Centre | M-E |
| Elisabeth Schneider-Schneiter | BL | Centre | M-E |
| Thomas Rechsteiner | AI | Centre | M-E |
| Nicolò Paganini | SG | Centre | M-E |
| Markus Ritter | SG | Centre | M-E |
| Martin Candinas | GR | Centre | M-E |
| Maya Bally | AG | Centre | M-E |
| Andreas Meier | AG | Centre | M-E |
| Christian Lohr | TG | Centre | M-E |
| Giorgio Fonio | TI | Centre | M-E |
| Isabelle Chappuis | VD | Centre | M-E |
| Philipp Matthias Bregy | VS | Centre | M-E |
| Sidney Kamerzin | VS | Centre | M-E |
| Benjamin Roduit | VS | Centre | M-E |
| Vincent Maitre | GE | Centre | M-E |
| Niklaus-Samuel Gugger | ZH | EVP | M-E |
| Marc Jost | BE | EVP | M-E |
| Bettina Balmer | ZH | FDP | RL |
| Hans-Peter Portmann | ZH | FDP | RL |
| Regine Sauter | ZH | FDP | RL |
| Andri Silberschmidt | ZH | FDP | RL |
| Beat Walti | ZH | FDP | RL |
| Christian Wasserfallen | BE | FDP | RL |
| Peter Schilliger | LU | FDP | RL |
| Heinz Theiler | SZ | FDP | RL |
| Nadine Gobet | FR | FDP | RL |
| Simon Michel | SO | FDP | RL |
| Daniela Schneeberger | BL | FDP | RL |
| Marcel Dobler | SG | FDP | RL |
| Susanne Vincenz-Stauffacher | SG | FDP | RL |
| Anna Giacometti | GR | FDP | RL |
| Maja Riniker | AG | FDP | RL |
| Kris Vietze | TG | FDP | RL |
| Alex Farinelli | TI | FDP | RL |
| Simone Gianini | TI | FDP | RL |
| Jacqueline de Quattro | VD | FDP | RL |
| Olivier Feller | VD | FDP | RL |
| Daniel Ruch | VD | FDP | RL |
| Laurent Wehrli | VD | FDP | RL |
| Philippe Nantermod | VS | FDP | RL |
| Damien Cottier | NE | FDP | RL |
| Cyril Aellen | GE | FDP | RL |
| Simone de Montmollin | GE | FDP | RL |
| Patricia von Falkenstein | BS | LDP | RL |
| Katharina Prelicz-Huber | ZH | Greens | G |
| Marionna Schlatter | ZH | Greens | G |
| Anna-Béatrice Schmaltz | ZH | Greens | G |
| Meret Schneider | ZH | Greens | G |
| Christine Badertscher | BE | Greens | G |
| Kilian Baumann | BE | Greens | G |
| Andrea de Meuron | BE | Greens | G |
| Michael Töngi | LU | Greens | G |
| Gerhard Andrey | FR | Greens | G |
| Laura Gantenbein | SO | Greens | G |
| Sibel Arslan | BS | Greens | G |
| Florence Brenzikofer | BL | Greens | G |
| Franziska Ryser | SG | Greens | G |
| Irène Kälin | AG | Greens | G |
| Greta Gysin | TI | Greens | G |
| Raphaël Mahaim | VD | Greens | G |
| Sophie Michaud Gigon | VD | Greens | G |
| Léonore Porchet | VD | Greens | G |
| Christophe Clivaz | VS | Greens | G |
| Clarence Chollet | NE | Greens | G |
| Rudi Berli | GE | Greens | G |
| Delphine Klopfenstein Broggini | GE | Greens | G |
| Manuela Weichelt | ZG | Al | G |
| Martin Bäumle | ZH | GLP | GL |
| Corina Gredig | ZH | GLP | GL |
| Patrick Hässig | ZH | GLP | GL |
| Barbara Schaffner | ZH | GLP | GL |
| Kathrin Bertschy | BE | GLP | GL |
| Jürg Grossen | BE | GLP | GL |
| Fabienne Stämpfli | BE | GLP | GL |
| Katja Christ | BS | GLP | GL |
| Matthias Samuel Jauslin | AG | GLP | GL |
| Barbara Portmann | AG | GLP | GL |
| Céline Weber | VD | GLP | GL |
Council of States: seats by parliamentary group
46
members
- M-E Die Mitte-Fraktion. Die Mitte. EVP. 15
- RL FDP-Liberale Fraktion 12
- S Sozialdemokratische Fraktion 7
- V Fraktion der Schweizerischen Volkspartei 7
- G Grüne Fraktion 3
- GL Grünliberale Fraktion The Parliamentary Services publish no colour for this group. 1
- FRAKTIONSLOS Fraktionslos 1
Council of States: 46 seats. Largest group: M-E (Die Mitte-Fraktion. Die Mitte. EVP.), with 15 of the 46 seats. Seats per group, in the order of the chart from left to right: M-E 15, RL 12, S 7, V 7, G 3, GL 1, FRAKTIONSLOS 1.
Show the data as a table
| Member | Canton | Party | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Gmür-Schönenberger | LU | Centre | M-E |
| Heidi Z'graggen | UR | Centre | M-E |
| Erich Ettlin | OW | Centre | M-E |
| Peter Hegglin | ZG | Centre | M-E |
| Isabelle Chassot | FR | Centre | M-E |
| Pirmin Bischof | SO | Centre | M-E |
| Daniel Fässler | AI | Centre | M-E |
| Benedikt Würth | SG | Centre | M-E |
| Stefan Engler | GR | Centre | M-E |
| Marianne Binder-Keller | AG | Centre | M-E |
| Brigitte Häberli-Koller | TG | Centre | M-E |
| Fabio Regazzi | TI | Centre | M-E |
| Marianne Maret | VS | Centre | M-E |
| Beat Rieder | VS | Centre | M-E |
| Charles Juillard | JU | Centre | M-E |
| Damian Müller | LU | FDP | RL |
| Josef Dittli | UR | FDP | RL |
| Petra Gössi | SZ | FDP | RL |
| Hans Wicki | NW | FDP | RL |
| Benjamin Mühlemann | GL | FDP | RL |
| Matthias Michel | ZG | FDP | RL |
| Johanna Gapany | FR | FDP | RL |
| Severin Brüngger | SH | FDP | RL |
| Andrea Caroni | AR | FDP | RL |
| Martin Schmid | GR | FDP | RL |
| Thierry Burkart | AG | FDP | RL |
| Pascal Broulis | VD | FDP | RL |
| Flavia Wasserfallen | BE | SP | S |
| Franziska Roth | SO | SP | S |
| Eva Herzog | BS | SP | S |
| Pierre-Yves Maillard | VD | SP | S |
| Baptiste Hurni | NE | SP | S |
| Carlo Sommaruga | GE | SP | S |
| Mathilde Crevoisier Crelier | JU | SP | S |
| Werner Salzmann | BE | SVP | V |
| Pirmin Schwander | SZ | SVP | V |
| Hannes Germann | SH | SVP | V |
| Esther Friedli | SG | SVP | V |
| Jakob Stark | TG | SVP | V |
| Marco Chiesa | TI | SVP | V |
| Mauro Poggia | GE | MCG | V |
| Mathias Zopfi | GL | Greens | G |
| Maya Graf | BL | Greens | G |
| Fabien Fivaz | NE | Greens | G |
| Tiana Angelina Moser | ZH | GLP | GL |
| Daniel Jositsch | ZH | non-party | FRAKTIONSLOS |
Source of the Federal Assembly data: Parlamentsdienste der Bundesversammlung, Bern. Downloaded on 31 October 2026. Prepared by Votara; this is not an official publication. Terms of use of the data
Chance of acceptance of upcoming votes
Votara estimate, not an official forecast· Mandatory referendum
VAT increase in favour of the old-age insurance
Chance of acceptance (Votara estimate): 58%
Not known yet: the recommendations of some parties.
· Popular initiative
Chance of acceptance (Votara estimate): 11%
Not known yet: the recommendations of some parties.
· Popular initiative
Initiative on the taxation of married couples
Chance of acceptance (Votara estimate): 20%
Not known yet: the recommendations of some parties.
· Optional referendum
Amendment to the War Materiel Act
Chance of acceptance (Votara estimate): 67%
Not known yet: the recommendations of some parties.
· Popular initiative
Initiative to ban the import of foie gras
No reliable estimate
Not known yet: the recommendations of most parties.
· Popular initiative
Initiative «For Modern Citizenship Rights (Democracy Initiative)»
No reliable estimate
Not known yet: the recommendations of most parties.
· Optional referendum
Free trade agreement with Malaysia
No reliable estimate
Not known yet: the recommendations of most parties.
· Optional referendum
Nuclear Energy Act (lifting of the ban on the construction of new nuclear power plants)
No reliable estimate
Not known yet: the recommendations of most parties.
· Optional referendum
Priority of collective employment agreements over cantonal minimum wages
No reliable estimate
Not known yet: the recommendations of most parties.
Sources: Votara — Votara odds-lite model – probability that a federal vote is accepted (updated on ); Année politique suisse, University of Bern — Swissvotes – database of federal popular votes (data 1848–2027, source checked on ) Checks failing; OFS/BFS — National Council elections since 1919 – party strength and seats (data 1919–2023, source checked on )
Party recommendations
The official voting recommendations (Parolen) of the national parties, as recorded by Swissvotes – not slogans. Each cell leads to the vote.
| Vote | SVP | SP | Centre | FDP | Greens | GLP | MCG | EDU | EVP | Lega |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Sept 2026 «Food Initiative» | No | No | No | No | Free vote | No | No | No | No | No |
| 27 Sept 2026 Neutrality Initiative | Yes | No | No | No | No | No | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
| 14 Jun 2026 Amendment to the Civilian Service Act | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes | No | Not recorded |
| 14 Jun 2026 «Sustainability initiative» (Limiting the national population) | Yes | No | No | No | No | No | Yes | Yes | No | Not recorded |
| 8 Mar 2026 Act on Individual Taxation | No | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | No | No | Not recorded |
| 8 Mar 2026 Climate Fund Initiative | No | Yes | No | No | Yes | No | No | No | Yes | Not recorded |
| 8 Mar 2026 Initiative «200 francs is enough!» (fees for public broadcasting) | Yes | No | No | No | No | No | Yes | Yes | No | Not recorded |
| 8 Mar 2026 Tie-breaker question on the Cash Initiative and the counter-proposal | Prefers the initiative | Prefers the counter-proposal | Prefers the counter-proposal | Prefers the counter-proposal | Prefers the counter-proposal | Prefers the counter-proposal | Prefers the counter-proposal | Prefers the initiative | Prefers the counter-proposal | Not recorded |
| 8 Mar 2026 Decree on the Swiss currency and cash supply | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Not recorded |
| 8 Mar 2026 Initiative «Cash is Freedom» | Yes | No | No | No | No | No | Yes | Yes | No | Not recorded |
| 30 Nov 2025 Initiative «For a social climate policy (Initiative for a Future)» | No | Yes | No | No | Yes | No | No | No | No | No |
| 30 Nov 2025 Service Citoyen Initiative | No | No | No | No | No | Yes | No | No | Yes | No |
- – means: Swissvotes has recorded no recommendation; for upcoming votes it has often not been decided yet.
- Swissvotes does not record recommendations of: Alternative-die Grünen Kanton Zug and Liberal-Demokratische Partei.
- ≈ Colour approximate, not yet checked against the party's own material: GLP and MCG.
Source: Année politique suisse, University of Bern — Swissvotes – database of federal popular votes (data 1848–2027, source checked on ) Checks failing
Party strength in National Council elections
Party share of the vote, 1919–2023
National Council elections. The parties with seats in today's Federal Assembly and, dashed, the parties that merged into one of them.
Share of the vote, %
- SVP
- SP
- Centre
- CVP → Centre
- BDP → Centre
- FDP
- LPS → FDP
- Greens
- GLP
- MCG
- EDU
- EVP
- Lega
Party share of the vote in National Council elections 1919–2023. In the 2023 election: SVP 27.9%, SP 18.3%, FDP 14.3%, Centre 14.1%, Greens 9.8%, GLP 7.6%, EVP 2.0%, EDU 1.2%, Lega 0.6%, MCG 0.5%.
Show the data as a table
| Year | SVP | SP | Centre | CVP → Centre | BDP → Centre | FDP | LPS → FDP | Greens | GLP | MCG | EDU | EVP | Lega |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1919 | 15.3% | 23.5% | no value | 21.0% | no value | 28.8% | 3.8% | no value | no value | no value | no value | 0.8% | no value |
| 1922 | 16.1% | 23.3% | no value | 20.9% | no value | 28.3% | 4.0% | no value | no value | no value | no value | 0.9% | no value |
| 1925 | 15.3% | 25.8% | no value | 20.9% | no value | 27.8% | 3.0% | no value | no value | no value | no value | 0.9% | no value |
| 1928 | 15.8% | 27.4% | no value | 21.4% | no value | 27.4% | 3.0% | no value | no value | no value | no value | 0.7% | no value |
| 1931 | 15.3% | 28.7% | no value | 21.4% | no value | 26.9% | 2.8% | no value | no value | no value | no value | 1.0% | no value |
| 1935 | 11.0% | 28.0% | no value | 20.3% | no value | 23.7% | 3.3% | no value | no value | no value | no value | 0.7% | no value |
| 1939 | 14.7% | 25.9% | no value | 17.0% | no value | 20.7% | 1.7% | no value | no value | no value | no value | 0.9% | no value |
| 1943 | 11.6% | 28.6% | no value | 20.8% | no value | 22.5% | 3.2% | no value | no value | no value | no value | 0.4% | no value |
| 1947 | 12.1% | 26.2% | no value | 21.2% | no value | 23.0% | 3.2% | no value | no value | no value | no value | 0.9% | no value |
| 1951 | 12.6% | 26.0% | no value | 22.5% | no value | 24.0% | 2.6% | no value | no value | no value | no value | 1.0% | no value |
| 1955 | 12.1% | 27.0% | no value | 23.2% | no value | 23.3% | 2.2% | no value | no value | no value | no value | 1.1% | no value |
| 1959 | 11.6% | 26.4% | no value | 23.3% | no value | 23.7% | 2.3% | no value | no value | no value | no value | 1.4% | no value |
| 1963 | 11.4% | 26.6% | no value | 23.4% | no value | 23.9% | 2.2% | no value | no value | no value | no value | 1.6% | no value |
| 1967 | 11.0% | 23.5% | no value | 22.1% | no value | 23.2% | 2.3% | no value | no value | no value | no value | 1.6% | no value |
| 1971 | 11.1% | 22.9% | no value | 20.3% | no value | 21.8% | 2.2% | no value | no value | no value | no value | 2.1% | no value |
| 1975 | 9.9% | 24.9% | no value | 21.1% | no value | 22.2% | 2.4% | 0.1% | no value | no value | 0.3% | 2.0% | no value |
| 1979 | 11.6% | 24.4% | no value | 21.3% | no value | 24.0% | 2.8% | 0.6% | no value | no value | 0.3% | 2.2% | no value |
| 1983 | 11.1% | 22.8% | no value | 20.2% | no value | 23.3% | 2.8% | 1.9% | no value | no value | 0.4% | 2.1% | no value |
| 1987 | 11.0% | 18.4% | no value | 19.6% | no value | 22.9% | 2.7% | 4.9% | no value | no value | 0.9% | 1.9% | no value |
| 1991 | 11.9% | 18.5% | no value | 18.0% | no value | 21.0% | 3.0% | 6.1% | no value | no value | 1.0% | 1.9% | 1.4% |
| 1995 | 14.9% | 21.8% | no value | 16.8% | no value | 20.2% | 2.7% | 5.0% | no value | no value | 1.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| 1999 | 22.5% | 22.5% | no value | 15.9% | no value | 19.9% | 2.3% | 5.0% | no value | no value | 1.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| 2003 | 26.7% | 23.3% | no value | 14.4% | no value | 17.3% | 2.2% | 7.4% | no value | no value | 1.3% | 2.3% | 0.4% |
| 2007 | 28.9% | 19.5% | no value | 14.5% | no value | 15.8% | 1.9% | 9.6% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| 2011 | 26.6% | 18.7% | no value | 12.3% | 5.4% | 15.1% | no value | 8.4% | 5.4% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| 2015 | 29.4% | 18.8% | no value | 11.6% | 4.1% | 16.4% | no value | 7.1% | 4.6% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| 2019 | 25.6% | 16.8% | no value | 11.4% | 2.4% | 15.1% | no value | 13.2% | 7.8% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| 2023 | 27.9% | 18.3% | 14.1% | no value | no value | 14.3% | no value | 9.8% | 7.6% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
- Dashed: parties that, according to the OFS/BFS, merged into a party of today (the arrow shows which). Their shares are not added up.
- ≈ Colour approximate, not yet checked against the party's own material: GLP and MCG.
Party lens
Pick a party: the page shows how the switches of the upcoming votes would be set if its recommendation won everywhere. What-if, not a forecast.