Votara track odds model
votara-odds-model
- Publisher
- Votara
- Access method
code- Endpoint
src/lib/model/odds.ts- Licence
- AGPL-3.0 (code), CC BY 4.0 (outputs)
- Used on
- STEER-03, STEER-04, STEER-05, STEER-06
- Known limits
- Votara estimate, not an official forecast. See docs/06-odds-model.md. Not published: the track Monte Carlo (src/lib/model/odds.ts, 0.1.0-skeleton) has no fitted parameters and no backtest yet. There is no open poll data (docs/architecture/notes/data-spike.md §(h)), so the poll steps of docs/06 §2.1 cannot be fitted yet. The first step is the per-vote P(accepted) of odds-lite (ledger votara-odds-lite), backtested on swissvotes since 1981; track probabilities stay in development until they have their own backtest.
How current is this data?
- Freshness
- No regular updates
There is no source to check regularly: Votara computes this itself, or the publication does not change.
- Period covered
- Not a time series
- Last change of the data
- not pulled yet
- Last check of the source
- No check recorded yet
- Update rhythm
- Computed by Votara
Ledger note (in English): after each poll, result or seat change
The state is computed each time the site is built; this page shows it as of . Results of the accuracy checks