Population scenarios for the cantons 2025–2055
bfs-population-scenarios-cantonal-2025
- Publisher
- OFS/BFS
- Access method
pxweb- Table id
px-x-0104020000_106- Licence
- opendata.swiss terms of use "terms_by": "Open use. Must provide the source."
- Coverage
- Geography cantons (26) · referenceDay 31 December · scenarios AR-00-2025 (reference), BR-00-2025 (high), CR-00-2025 (low) · from 2024 · to 2055
- Gaps
- Cantonal scenarios only — BFS publishes no commune-level scenarios. The table also holds variants AR-05/06/07-2025 (high, low, constant net migration), not kept. 2024 is already projected (scenarios start from 1 January 2024).
- Used on
- STORY-09, AGORA-20, AGORA-22
- Known limits
- Scenarios are conditional projections, not forecasts. The cantonal hypotheses were proposed by the cantons themselves (quantitative hypotheses adopted where a canton supplied them, BFS proposals otherwise — press release of 15.04.2025), so assumptions differ between cantons.
- Verification
- verification date: 2026-10-31 · method: Fetched from the BFS PxWeb API (px-x-0104020000_106). The 26 cantons sum exactly to the national scenario values of bfs-population-scenarios-2025 (2055 reference 10 465 826). Growth 2024–2055 in the reference scenario compared with the BFS press release of 15.04.2025 ("in den Kantonen Luzern, St. Gallen, Waadt, Genf, Thurgau und Aargau um über 20%"; "Jura, Neuenburg, Schaffhausen und Appenzell Ausserrhoden … weniger als 2% bis 2055") — the data give exactly these six cantons above 20 % and these four below 2 %. · checkedValue: Reference 2024→2055: LU +33.0 %, SG +26.6 %, VD +23.1 %, GE +22.5 %, TG +21.7 %, AG +21.6 %; AR +1.2 %, SH +0.8 %, NE +0.5 %, JU +0.3 % · checkedAgainst: https://dam-api.bfs.admin.ch/hub/api/dam/assets/34687089/master
- Processed file
- data/processed/bfs-population-scenarios-cantonal-2025.csv
How current is this data?
- Freshness
- Up to date
According to its update rhythm, no newer edition is expected yet.
- Period covered
- 2024–2055
- Last change of the data
- Last check of the source
- Update rhythm
- Irregular
Ledger note (in English): Irregular, about every five years; this edition was published on 15 April 2025 together with the national scenarios.
- Votara checks the source
- Every week, and every day from 3 days before to 14 days after an announced publication date
The state is computed each time the site is built; this page shows it as of . Results of the accuracy checks
Transformations
- GET the table metadata, then POST with Kanton = all, scenario codes resolved from the labels (AR-00-2025 → reference, BR-00-2025 → high, CR-00-2025 → low) and observation unit "Bevölkerungsstand am 31. Dezember". Nationality, sex and age class are eliminated (totals). Script: scripts/fetch/bfs-population-scenarios-cantonal-2025.ts
- Canton labels ("Bern / Berne", "Graubünden / Grigioni / Grischun", "Ticino" …) mapped to abbreviations with scripts/fetch/cantons.ts; any unknown label fails the fetch. The "Schweiz" row is not written; it is used to check that the 26 cantons add up to it (they do, every year and scenario).
- Keep years 2024–2055 (the BFS publication horizon). Values copied as published (persons).
- STORY-09 "cantonal scenario applied proportionally" to a commune is a Votara derivation: commune population (bfs-commune-population) × canton growth factor from this file; it must be labelled as such and is not stored here.