Scénarios de l'évolution de la population des cantons 2025–2055
bfs-population-scenarios-cantonal-2025
- Éditeur
- OFS/BFS
- Mode d'accès
pxweb- Identifiant du tableau
px-x-0104020000_106- Licence
- opendata.swiss terms of use "terms_by": "Open use. Must provide the source."
- Couverture
- Territoire cantons (26) · referenceDay 31 December · scenarios AR-00-2025 (reference), BR-00-2025 (high), CR-00-2025 (low) · de 2024 · à 2055
- Lacunes
- Cantonal scenarios only — BFS publishes no commune-level scenarios. The table also holds variants AR-05/06/07-2025 (high, low, constant net migration), not kept. 2024 is already projected (scenarios start from 1 January 2024).
- Utilisé dans
- STORY-09, AGORA-20, AGORA-22
- Limites connues
- Scenarios are conditional projections, not forecasts. The cantonal hypotheses were proposed by the cantons themselves (quantitative hypotheses adopted where a canton supplied them, BFS proposals otherwise — press release of 15.04.2025), so assumptions differ between cantons.
- Vérification
- verification date: 2026-10-31 · method: Fetched from the BFS PxWeb API (px-x-0104020000_106). The 26 cantons sum exactly to the national scenario values of bfs-population-scenarios-2025 (2055 reference 10 465 826). Growth 2024–2055 in the reference scenario compared with the BFS press release of 15.04.2025 ("in den Kantonen Luzern, St. Gallen, Waadt, Genf, Thurgau und Aargau um über 20%"; "Jura, Neuenburg, Schaffhausen und Appenzell Ausserrhoden … weniger als 2% bis 2055") — the data give exactly these six cantons above 20 % and these four below 2 %. · checkedValue: Reference 2024→2055: LU +33.0 %, SG +26.6 %, VD +23.1 %, GE +22.5 %, TG +21.7 %, AG +21.6 %; AR +1.2 %, SH +0.8 %, NE +0.5 %, JU +0.3 % · checkedAgainst: https://dam-api.bfs.admin.ch/hub/api/dam/assets/34687089/master
- Fichier traité
- data/processed/bfs-population-scenarios-cantonal-2025.csv
Ces données sont-elles à jour ?
- Fraîcheur
- À jour
Selon son rythme de mise à jour, aucune édition plus récente n’est encore attendue.
- Période couverte
- 2024–2055
- Dernière modification des données
- Dernière consultation de la source
- Rythme de mise à jour
- Irrégulier
Note du registre (en anglais) : Irregular, about every five years; this edition was published on 15 April 2025 together with the national scenarios.
- Votara consulte la source
- Chaque semaine, et chaque jour de 3 jours avant à 14 jours après une date de publication annoncée
L’état est calculé à chaque construction du site ; cette page le montre au . Résultats des contrôles
Étapes de traitement
- GET the table metadata, then POST with Kanton = all, scenario codes resolved from the labels (AR-00-2025 → reference, BR-00-2025 → high, CR-00-2025 → low) and observation unit "Bevölkerungsstand am 31. Dezember". Nationality, sex and age class are eliminated (totals). Script: scripts/fetch/bfs-population-scenarios-cantonal-2025.ts
- Canton labels ("Bern / Berne", "Graubünden / Grigioni / Grischun", "Ticino" …) mapped to abbreviations with scripts/fetch/cantons.ts; any unknown label fails the fetch. The "Schweiz" row is not written; it is used to check that the 26 cantons add up to it (they do, every year and scenario).
- Keep years 2024–2055 (the BFS publication horizon). Values copied as published (persons).
- STORY-09 "cantonal scenario applied proportionally" to a commune is a Votara derivation: commune population (bfs-commune-population) × canton growth factor from this file; it must be labelled as such and is not stored here.