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Change the seats of the 200 members of the National Council and see how many seats would stand behind a yes or a no recommendation in upcoming votes. A game with the numbers – not a forecast of the 2027 election.

National Council: 200 seats

The line marks half of the seats (100).

PartySeatsShareToday
31%62
20.5%41
14.5%29
13%26
11%22
5.5%11
1%2
1%2
1%2
0.5%1
0.5%1
0.5%1

All 200 seats are assigned.

Link to this parliament

Source: Parliamentary Services of the Federal Assembly — Current members of the Federal Assembly (source checked on ) Checks failing

Upcoming votes with this parliament

Votara estimate, not an official forecastWhat-if, not a forecast

Seat shares stand in for the parties’ vote shares here (a simplification). The parties’ recommendations, the positions of the Federal Council and the parliament and the recorded final votes stay as they are.

  • · Mandatory referendum

    VAT increase in favour of the old-age insurance

    Seats of parties recommending yes
    105
    Seats of parties recommending no
    90
    Other seats (neither yes nor no, not decided yet or not recorded)
    5
    Party support (seat shares instead of vote shares)
    +7.5 percentage points
    Chance of acceptance, today’s National Council
    58%
    Chance of acceptance, your parliament
    58%

    Some parties have not decided their recommendation yet; their seats count as not decided.

  • · Popular initiative

    Fireworks Initiative

    Seats of parties recommending yes
    76
    Seats of parties recommending no
    119
    Other seats (neither yes nor no, not decided yet or not recorded)
    5
    Party support (seat shares instead of vote shares)
    -21.5 percentage points
    Chance of acceptance, today’s National Council
    11%
    Chance of acceptance, your parliament
    11%

    Some parties have not decided their recommendation yet; their seats count as not decided.

  • · Popular initiative

    Initiative on the taxation of married couples

    Seats of parties recommending yes
    95
    Seats of parties recommending no
    100
    Other seats (neither yes nor no, not decided yet or not recorded)
    5
    Party support (seat shares instead of vote shares)
    -2.5 percentage points
    Chance of acceptance, today’s National Council
    21%
    Chance of acceptance, your parliament
    21%

    Some parties have not decided their recommendation yet; their seats count as not decided.

  • · Optional referendum

    Amendment to the War Materiel Act

    Seats of parties recommending yes
    130
    Seats of parties recommending no
    65
    Other seats (neither yes nor no, not decided yet or not recorded)
    5
    Party support (seat shares instead of vote shares)
    +32.5 percentage points
    Chance of acceptance, today’s National Council
    66%
    Chance of acceptance, your parliament
    66%

    Some parties have not decided their recommendation yet; their seats count as not decided.

  • · Popular initiative

    Initiative to ban the import of foie gras

    Seats of parties recommending yes
    0
    Seats of parties recommending no
    0
    Other seats (neither yes nor no, not decided yet or not recorded)
    200
    Party support (seat shares instead of vote shares)
    0.0 percentage points
    Chance of acceptance, today’s National Council
    17%
    Chance of acceptance, your parliament
    17%

    Some parties have not decided their recommendation yet; their seats count as not decided.

  • · Popular initiative

    Initiative «For Modern Citizenship Rights (Democracy Initiative)»

    Seats of parties recommending yes
    0
    Seats of parties recommending no
    0
    Other seats (neither yes nor no, not decided yet or not recorded)
    200
    Party support (seat shares instead of vote shares)
    0.0 percentage points
    Chance of acceptance, today’s National Council
    17%
    Chance of acceptance, your parliament
    17%

    Some parties have not decided their recommendation yet; their seats count as not decided.

  • · Optional referendum

    Free trade agreement with Malaysia

    Seats of parties recommending yes
    0
    Seats of parties recommending no
    0
    Other seats (neither yes nor no, not decided yet or not recorded)
    200
    Party support (seat shares instead of vote shares)
    0.0 percentage points
    Chance of acceptance, today’s National Council
    59%
    Chance of acceptance, your parliament
    59%

    Some parties have not decided their recommendation yet; their seats count as not decided.

  • · Optional referendum

    Nuclear Energy Act (lifting of the ban on the construction of new nuclear power plants)

    Seats of parties recommending yes
    0
    Seats of parties recommending no
    0
    Other seats (neither yes nor no, not decided yet or not recorded)
    200
    Party support (seat shares instead of vote shares)
    0.0 percentage points
    Chance of acceptance, today’s National Council
    52%
    Chance of acceptance, your parliament
    52%

    Some parties have not decided their recommendation yet; their seats count as not decided.

  • · Optional referendum

    Priority of collective employment agreements over cantonal minimum wages

    Seats of parties recommending yes
    0
    Seats of parties recommending no
    0
    Other seats (neither yes nor no, not decided yet or not recorded)
    200
    Party support (seat shares instead of vote shares)
    0.0 percentage points
    Chance of acceptance, today’s National Council
    51%
    Chance of acceptance, your parliament
    51%

    Some parties have not decided their recommendation yet; their seats count as not decided.

Sources: Parliamentary Services of the Federal Assembly — Current members of the Federal Assembly (source checked on ) Checks failing; Année politique suisse, University of Bern — Swissvotes – database of federal popular votes (data 1848–2027, source checked on ) Checks failing; Votara — Votara odds-lite model – probability that a federal vote is accepted (updated on )

How the chances are computed: How the odds are computed