Scoreboard
Every estimate Votara publishes is recorded before the vote and scored after it. Lines are only ever added – never changed or deleted.
Published estimates
None of the published estimates has been voted on yet.
| Published | Vote | Chance of acceptance (Votara estimate) | Result | Brier score | Average Brier score so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAT increase in favour of the old-age insurance · odds-lite-0.1.0 | 58% | Not voted yet | no value | no value | |
| Fireworks Initiative · odds-lite-0.1.0 | 11% | Not voted yet | no value | no value | |
| Initiative on the taxation of married couples · odds-lite-0.1.0 | 20% | Not voted yet | no value | no value | |
| Amendment to the War Materiel Act · odds-lite-0.1.0 | 67% | Not voted yet | no value | no value |
Sources: Votara — Votara odds-lite model – probability that a federal vote is accepted (updated on ); Année politique suisse, University of Bern — Swissvotes – database of federal popular votes (data 1848–2027, source checked on ) Checks failing
The log is append-only: a line is never changed or deleted. The full log as CSV
Calibration of the published estimates
Horizontal: estimated chance of acceptance. Vertical: share of those votes actually accepted.
No published estimate has been voted on yet.
Backtest – not live predictions
How the method would have done on past votes – computed afterwards, using only the information available before each vote. It evaluates the method; it is not a record of published estimates.